Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.003796 0.004156 0.004542 0.004986 0.005486 0.006031 0.006674
2025-12-07 0.003276 0.003797 0.004396 0.005139 0.006045 0.007120 0.008508
2025-12-14 0.002877 0.003459 0.004159 0.005073 0.006249 0.007730 0.009769
2025-12-21 0.002570 0.003177 0.003935 0.004963 0.006345 0.008172 0.010828
2025-12-28 0.002350 0.002976 0.003779 0.004907 0.006483 0.008656 0.011973
2026-01-04 0.002204 0.002850 0.003703 0.004939 0.006728 0.009296 0.013407
2026-01-11 0.002047 0.002695 0.003571 0.004874 0.006818 0.009709 0.014538
2026-01-18 0.001919 0.002568 0.003464 0.004829 0.006926 0.010151 0.015758
2026-01-25 0.001801 0.002446 0.003353 0.004767 0.006995 0.010531 0.016915
2026-02-01 0.001718 0.002366 0.003296 0.004775 0.007172 0.011093 0.018457
2026-02-08 0.001624 0.002264 0.003198 0.004714 0.007225 0.011452 0.019673
2026-02-15 0.001534 0.002163 0.003094 0.004631 0.007233 0.011728 0.020766
2026-02-22 0.001479 0.002115 0.003072 0.004687 0.007497 0.012509 0.023027
2026-03-01 0.001446 0.002098 0.003100 0.004829 0.007926 0.013655 0.026262
2026-03-08 0.001373 0.002014 0.003012 0.004768 0.007982 0.014097 0.028068
2026-03-15 0.001297 0.001921 0.002906 0.004666 0.007952 0.014365 0.029527
2026-03-22 0.001238 0.001852 0.002833 0.004614 0.008011 0.014815 0.031497
2026-03-29 0.001199 0.001812 0.002806 0.004644 0.008228 0.015619 0.034493
2026-04-05 0.001146 0.001747 0.002733 0.004583 0.008259 0.016027 0.036563
2026-04-12 0.001100 0.001692 0.002674 0.004542 0.008325 0.016519 0.038960
2026-04-19 0.001055 0.001635 0.002608 0.004484 0.008350 0.016920 0.041194
2026-04-26 0.001024 0.001600 0.002578 0.004492 0.008515 0.017668 0.044605
2026-05-03 0.000984 0.001548 0.002517 0.004435 0.008533 0.018065 0.047056